Dear friends,

first of all I apologize for not being able to join your very interesting initiative. The NATO Parliamentary Assembly activities are really great but they also require a lot of time and work. I just came back from an outstanding visit to the Emirates and to Oman, where I had the chance to better understand how complex the situation in the Middle East is today and how many new challenges are coming up every day. The American foreign policy of the last years, moving the strategic interest of the USA towards the Pacific front, has created a feeling of isolation for most countries in the region, including Saudi Arabia and the Emirates; the nuclear deal with Iran from one side has positive aspects but on the other has worsened the relationships with the Saudis; the big challenges such as the conflict in Syria and Iraq as well as Islamist radicalization and terrorism appear now even more complex to manage.

Next week I will be in Georgia, leading the NATO delegation in the observation mission of the political elections, which will take place on October 8. Also the eastern flank of Europe and the North Atlantic Alliance is experiencing new and unexpected tensions, and we have the responsibility of working to defend the rule of law and the international right against any violation: territorial integrity and self-determination of peoples must be guaranteed against any aggression, starting from the illegal annexation of Ukraine by the Russian Federation. Many other regional conflicts or instabilities still characterize Europe’s neighborhoods, including Afghanistan, thus increasing the flow of refugees towards our Countries. And the drama of economic migrants from Northern Africa and the sub Saharan region calls for a strong engagement of the entire international community to foster economic and social development in the African Continent.

I would like to address the topic of environmental protection, which you selected for your discussions, as a crucial issue, strongly connected not only to economic and social aspects, but to international security as well.

The consciousness of how important environment is for our future and the future of the next generations has really increased in the last decades, not only because of the action of many associations all over the world but also for the new approach by Governments, inter-governmental organizations and many private companies. Environmental protection has become also a new sector of business, and the discussion about repairing damages versus preventing them is still open and represents a major political issue. I personally believe that a balanced approach is necessary, avoiding to impose by law non-realistic limitations but being very strong against any violation of the established rules. Investing in research and innovation is crucial to foster the prevention aspect.

Above any other consideration, I believe that the education of citizens, starting from young generations, still remains the first priority, as individual and collective behaviors play a decisive role in building a more sustainable world.

Everybody now speaks of sustainable development, and the concept has been widened from the original meaning – strictly related to the respect of nature -, including now social, economic and political issues: this is a good approach in order to guarantee the possibility of not wasting the resources of our fragile planet, as also Pope Francis is reminding us.

The recent decision of the USA and China to ratify the Paris agreements on climate change could be a breakthrough in the long race, started decades ago in Kyoto, to tackle the problem, which appears to be more and more political.

I will take two examples, which are of course well known, to demonstrate how the climate change is affecting international geopolitical balances and security.

The areas of the planet which suffer from scarcity of water are experiencing a worsening of their situation due to the increase in average temperature. Millions of people flee from regions where the water scarcity creates real dramas in terms of possibility of survival. As this happens mainly in poor countries with no possibility of supporting huge investments to counter such phenomena, desertification advances and migration increases dramatically. Social tensions and increasing economic unbalances between regions as well as between social classes give rise to contexts where internal and international security can be jeopardized. The human history is full of wars caused by the control of hydric resources in several part of the world, and climate change is increasing the threat for such conflicts to happen again.

The second example is the High North.

This situation is not well known and not carefully considered by media, but it will rise as a strategic issue in the next decades.

The temperature increase in the Arctic region is still higher than in other parts of the planet and produces the anticipated melting of the ice. This is normally – and correctly – considered as a big problem for the consequences on the critical equilibrium of the Nordic environment and biodiversity. But the consequences will be very important also in social, economic and geopolitical terms.

In fact, the ice melting gives access to the enormous resources of the Arctic continent: not only oil and gas below the sea, but also metals, rare earths and other minerals like in Greenland. And a second consequence of the ice melting is the opening of new commercial routes between northern Europe and the far East, saving 40% of time and consumption for the ships, compared to the traditional southern routes.

All of that gives rise to a new run by the most important global players, such as Russia and China, to control such resources.

China opened its largest European embassy, able to contain up to 500 diplomats, in Reykjavik, and there is no other reason for that than controlling the access to the high north, as they have no direct coastal control.

Greenland is willing to separate from Denmark in order to take advantage of their big natural resources, and China is trying to buy concessions of mines, bringing Chinese personnel to operate them.

Russia controls the largest portion of the arctic coasts on the North-East passage, and it owns the largest number of available icebreakers; it is improving its control in the region, also building new rescue bases, which will easily become military bases as well, thus fostering the militarization of the Arctic. Some months ago Putin asked, according to the international maritime code, that an area 1.2 million square kilometers extending up to the North Pole be recognized as property of the Russian Federation. (It is very curious that Putin calls for the application of international laws when it is convenient for him and violates the international right in Crimea, Donbass, Abkhatia, South Ossetia – but this is the reality)

The Arctic Council is trying to face those challenges, but the consequences of the new relationships are still not known.

Europe itself could be strongly affected by the displacement of commercial sea traffics from south to north, and by a stronger presence of global players such as Russia and China.

I apologize for my long considerations, but I intended to underscore that the topic you are discussing in these days are far more important and strategic than they are normally thought to be.

For this reason I encourage you to study in a careful way everything, as a deep knowledge of phenomena is the only way for old and new politicians to take the right decisions.

Europe needs a new and well prepared class of managers and politicians, and you are our hope.

The EPP approach to reality has always been based on values, knowledge, awareness and accountability: all of that requires investments from you in terms of time, study, critical confrontation. Your initiative moves in the right direction, especially in a time when populisms, superficiality, demagogy highly jeopardize all the efforts made to build a political Union. People easily forget that the European construction has guaranteed the longest period of peace in our Continent, more than 70 years. And many people say that now Europe is our enemy. We have made many mistakes, but the values of the fathers of Europe, Adenauer, De Gasperi, Schumann, still stand high above our eyes and our hearts.

It is up to you, dear young friends, to get back to those values, you are our unique and real hope for the future.

The road is very long yet, but every step, big or small, makes us closer to the final goal.

I wish a good work to everybody and if anyone of you wants to ask me some information and documentation, especially regarding international relationships and security, I will be happy to get in contact with you via my email address or through my friends Virgilio Falco and Michelangelo Chinni.

All the best. God bless you.

Paolo Alli

Vice President of NATO Parliamentary Assembly

Member of the Italian Parliament

30th September 2016